Publications

publications by categories in reversed chronological order. generated by jekyll-scholar.

2024

  1. Differential responses of SARS-CoV-2 variants to environmental drivers during their selective sweeps
    Thomas P Smith, Swapnil Mishra, Ilaria Dorigatti, and 3 more authors
    Scientific Reports, 2024
  2. The interaction of disease transmission, mortality, and economic output over the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic
    Christian Morgenstern, Daniel J Laydon, Charles Whittaker, and 4 more authors
    Plos one, 2024
  3. KidSat: satellite imagery to map childhood poverty dataset and benchmark
    Makkunda Sharma, Fan Yang, Duy-Nhat Vo, and 6 more authors
    arXiv preprint arXiv:2407.05986, 2024
  4. Shifts in Indonesia’s malaria landscape: an analysis of 2010-2019 routine surveillance data
    Bimandra A Djaafara, Ellie Sherrard-Smith, Thomas Churcher, and 7 more authors
    medRxiv, 2024

2023

  1. Assessment of COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death among children and young people aged 0 to 19 years in the US
    Seth Flaxman, Charles Whittaker, Elizaveta Semenova, and 8 more authors
    JAMA network open, 2023
  2. Sex differences in health care expenditures and mortality after spousal bereavement: A register-based Danish cohort study
    Alexandros Katsiferis, Samir Bhatt, Laust Hvas Mortensen, and 2 more authors
    Plos one, 2023
  3. Effectiveness assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions: lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic
    Adrian Lison, Nicolas Banholzer, Mrinank Sharma, and 8 more authors
    The Lancet Public Health, 2023
  4. A comparison of short-term probabilistic forecasts for the incidence of COVID-19 using mechanistic and statistical time series models
    Nicolas Banholzer, Thomas Mellan, H Juliette T Unwin, and 3 more authors
    arXiv preprint arXiv:2305.00933, 2023
  5. Machine learning models of healthcare expenditures predicting mortality: A cohort study of spousal bereaved Danish individuals
    Alexandros Katsiferis, Samir Bhatt, Laust Hvas Mortensen, and 3 more authors
    Plos one, 2023
  6. Application of referenced thermodynamic integration to Bayesian model selection
    Iwona Hawryluk, Swapnil Mishra, Seth Flaxman, and 2 more authors
    Plos one, 2023
  7. Unifying incidence and prevalence under a time-varying general branching process
    Mikko S Pakkanen, Xenia Miscouridou, Matthew J Penn, and 5 more authors
    Journal of Mathematical Biology, 2023
  8. Semi-Mechanistic Bayesian modeling of COVID-19 with Renewal Processes
    Samir Bhatt, Neil Ferguson, Seth Flaxman, and 3 more authors
    J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. A Stat. Soc., 2023
  9. Predicting mortality risk after a fall in older adults using health care spending patterns: a population-based cohort study
    Alexandros Katsiferis, Laust Hvas Mortensen, Mark P Khurana, and 3 more authors
    Age and ageing, 2023
  10. Ethnicity and anthropometric deficits in children: a cross-sectional analysis of national survey data from 18 countries in sub-Saharan Africa
    Lucy S Tusting, Harry S Gibson, Swapnil Mishra, and 4 more authors
    medRxiv, 2023
  11. Life course analysis using deep learning approaches: a simulation study
    Helen Coupland, Neil Scheidwasser, Alexandros Katsiferis, and 5 more authors
    2023
  12. Use of Contrastive Learning to Predict the Prevalence of Malaria in Africa Using Satellite Imagery
    Kaustubh Chakradeo, Alexandros Katsiferis, Neil Scheidwasser, and 8 more authors
    In 9TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INFECTIOUS DISEASE DYNAMICS P, 2023
  13. Bhatt, Ferguson, Flaxman, Gandy, Mishra, and Scott’s reply to the Discussion of ‘The Second Discussion Meeting on Statistical aspects of the Covid-19 Pandemic’
    Samir Bhatt, Neil Ferguson, Seth Flaxman, and 3 more authors
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 2023
  14. Comparative impact assessment of COVID-19 policy interventions in five South Asian countries using reported and estimated unreported death counts during 2020-2021
    Ritoban Kundu, Jyotishka Datta, Debashree Ray, and 4 more authors
    PLOS Global Public Health, 2023
  15. Deep learning and MCMC with aggVAE for shifting administrative boundaries: mapping malaria prevalence in Kenya
    Elizaveta Semenova, Swapnil Mishra, Samir Bhatt, and 2 more authors
    In International Workshop on Epistemic Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2023
  16. Intrinsic randomness in epidemic modelling beyond statistical uncertainty
    Matthew J Penn, Daniel J Laydon, Joseph Penn, and 7 more authors
    Communications Physics, 2023
  17. Excess mortality during the first ten months of COVID-19 epidemic at Jakarta, Indonesia
    Iqbal RF Elyazar, Henry Surendra, Lenny L Ekawati, and 8 more authors
    International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2023
  18. The societal value of SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccination in Indonesia
    Rob Johnson, Bimandra Djaafara, David Haw, and 6 more authors
    Vaccine, 2023
  19. Quantifying the effect of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study
    Natsuko Imai, Thomas Rawson, Edward S Knock, and 8 more authors
    The Lancet Public Health, 2023
  20. Data pipelines in a public health emergency: the human in the machine
    Katy AM Gaythorpe, Rich G Fitzjohn, Wes Hinsley, and 7 more authors
    Epidemics, 2023

2022

  1. A COVID-19 model for local authorities of the United Kingdom
    Swapnil Mishra, James A Scott, Daniel J Laydon, and 5 more authors
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 2022
  2. Estimating the COVID-19 infection fatality ratio accounting for seroreversion using statistical modelling
    Nicholas F Brazeau, Robert Verity, Sara Jenks, and 8 more authors
    Communications medicine, 2022
  3. A dataset of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 in Europe
    George Altman, Janvi Ahuja, Joshua Teperowski Monrad, and 8 more authors
    Scientific Data, 2022
  4. PriorVAE: encoding spatial priors with variational autoencoders for small-area estimation
    Elizaveta Semenova, Yidan Xu, Adam Howes, and 4 more authors
    Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2022
  5. Spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals
    Andrea Brizzi, Charles Whittaker, Luciana MS Servo, and 8 more authors
    Nature medicine, 2022
  6. \pi VAE: a stochastic process prior for Bayesian deep learning with MCMC
    Swapnil Mishra, Seth Flaxman, Tresnia Berah, and 3 more authors
    Statistics and Computing, 2022
  7. Cox-Hawkes: doubly stochastic spatiotemporal Poisson processes
    Xenia Miscouridou, Samir Bhatt, George Mohler, and 2 more authors
    arXiv preprint arXiv:2210.11844, 2022
  8. The interaction of transmission intensity, mortality, and the economy: a retrospective analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic
    Christian Morgenstern, Daniel J Laydon, Charles Whittaker, and 4 more authors
    arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.00054, 2022
  9. Authors’ Reply to the Discussion of ‘A COVID-19 Model for Local Authorities of the United Kingdom’by Mishra et al. in Session 2 of the Royal Statistical Society’s Special Topic Meeting on COVID-19 Transmission: 11 June 2021
    Swapnil Mishra, James A Scott, Daniel J Laydon, and 5 more authors
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 2022
  10. Convolutional neural processes for inpainting satellite images
    Alexander Pondaven, Märt Bakler, Donghu Guo, and 3 more authors
    arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.12407, 2022
  11. Understanding the potential impact of different drug properties on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and disease burden: A modelling analysis
    Charles Whittaker, Oliver J Watson, Carlos Alvarez-Moreno, and 8 more authors
    Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2022
  12. Pandemic inequity in a megacity: a multilevel analysis of individual, community and healthcare vulnerability risks for COVID-19 mortality in Jakarta, Indonesia
    Henry Surendra, Ngabila Salama, Karina D Lestari, and 8 more authors
    BMJ global health, 2022
  13. Quantifying spatial heterogeneity of malaria in the endemic Papua region of Indonesia: Analysis of epidemiological surveillance data
    Ihsan Fadilah, Bimandra A Djaafara, Karina D Lestari, and 8 more authors
    The Lancet Regional Health-Southeast Asia, 2022

2021

  1. Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States
    Mélodie Monod, Alexandra Blenkinsop, Xiaoyue Xi, and 8 more authors
    Science, 2021
  2. Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1. 7 in England
    Erik* Volz, Swapnil* Mishra, Meera* Chand, and 8 more authors
    Nature, 2021
  3. Genomics and epidemiology of the P. 1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil
    Nuno R Faria, Thomas A Mellan, Charles Whittaker, and 8 more authors
    Science, 2021
  4. Environmental drivers of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1. 7 transmission intensity
    Thomas P Smith, Ilaria Dorigatti, Swapnil Mishra, and 5 more authors
    medRxiv, 2021
  5. A unified machine learning approach to time series forecasting applied to demand at emergency departments
    Michaela AC Vollmer, Ben Glampson, Thomas Mellan, and 7 more authors
    BMC Emergency Medicine, 2021
  6. Gaussian process nowcasting: application to COVID-19 mortality reporting
    Iwona Hawryluk, Henrique Hoeltgebaum, Swapnil Mishra, and 7 more authors
    In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2021
  7. Modelling the impact of the tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns
    Daniel J Laydon, Swapnil Mishra, Wes R Hinsley, and 5 more authors
    BMJ open, 2021
  8. A comparison of five epidemiological models for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in India
    Soumik Purkayastha, Rupam Bhattacharyya, Ritwik Bhaduri, and 6 more authors
    BMC infectious diseases, 2021
  9. Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China
    Han Fu, Haowei Wang, Xiaoyue Xi, and 8 more authors
    International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2021
  10. Using Hawkes Processes to model imported and local malaria cases in near-elimination settings
    H Juliette T Unwin, Isobel Routledge, Seth Flaxman, and 6 more authors
    PLoS computational biology, 2021
  11. Genetic evidence for the association between COVID-19 epidemic severity and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions
    Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, Olivia Boyd, Lily Geidelberg, and 8 more authors
    Nature Communications, 2021
  12. A modified two-process Knox test for investigating the relationship between law enforcement opioid seizures and overdoses
    G Mohler, S Mishra, B Ray, and 5 more authors
    Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 2021
  13. Maps and metrics of insecticide-treated net access, use, and nets-per-capita in Africa from 2000-2020
    Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Caitlin A Bever, Hannah Koenker, and 8 more authors
    Nature communications, 2021
  14. Quantifying online news media coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic: Text mining study and resource
    Konrad Krawczyk, Tadeusz Chelkowski, Daniel J Laydon, and 8 more authors
    Journal of medical Internet research, 2021
  15. Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 in India: Potential role of the B. 1.617. 2 (Delta) variant and delayed interventions
    Maxwell Salvatore, Rupam Bhattacharyya, Soumik Purkayastha, and 8 more authors
    MedRxiv, 2021
  16. Is the cure really worse than the disease? The health impacts of lockdowns during COVID-19
    Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, Samir Bhatt, Oliver Ratmann, and 8 more authors
    BMJ global health, 2021
  17. Changing composition of SARS-CoV-2 lineages and rise of Delta variant in England
    Swapnil Mishra, Sören Mindermann, Mrinank Sharma, and 8 more authors
    EClinicalMedicine, 2021
  18. Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling
    Swapnil Mishra, James A Scott, Daniel J Laydon, and 8 more authors
    Scientific Reports, 2021
  19. SARS-CoV-2 B. 1.617. 2 Delta variant replication and immune evasion
    Petra Mlcochova, Steven A Kemp, Mahesh Shanker Dhar, and 8 more authors
    Nature, 2021
  20. Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe
    Mrinank Sharma, Sören Mindermann, Charlie Rogers-Smith, and 8 more authors
    Nature communications, 2021
  21. Epidemia: An R package for semi-mechanistic bayesian modelling of infectious diseases using point processes
    James A Scott, Axel Gandy, Swapnil Mishra, and 4 more authors
    arXiv preprint arXiv:2110.12461, 2021
  22. Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria
    Oliver J Watson, Mervat Alhaffar, Zaki Mehchy, and 8 more authors
    Nature communications, 2021
  23. Genomic characterization and epidemiology of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in Delhi, India
    Mahesh S Dhar, Robin Marwal, Radhakrishnan Vs, and 8 more authors
    Science, 2021
  24. The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium. 2021. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1. 7 in England: insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data
    E Volz, S Mishra, M Chand, and 8 more authors
    medRxiv, 2021
  25. Under-Reporting Does Hurt the COVID Fight
    Bhramar Mukherjee, Soumik Purkayastha, Maxwell Salvatore, and 1 more author
    The Hindu, 2021
  26. COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium. Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1. 7 in England
    E Volz, S Mishra, M Chand, and 8 more authors
    Nature, 2021
  27. Environmental drivers of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1. 7 transmission in England, October to December 2020
    Thomas P Smith, Ilaria Dorigatti, Swapnil Mishra, and 5 more authors
    2021
  28. Clinical characteristics and mortality associated with COVID-19 in Jakarta, Indonesia: A hospital-based retrospective cohort study
    Henry Surendra, Iqbal RF Elyazar, Bimandra A Djaafara, and 8 more authors
    The Lancet Regional Health–Western Pacific, 2021
  29. A quantitative framework for defining the end of an infectious disease outbreak: application to Ebola virus disease
    Bimandra A Djaafara, Natsuko Imai, Esther Hamblion, and 3 more authors
    American journal of epidemiology, 2021
  30. Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout
    Bimandra A Djaafara, Charles Whittaker, Oliver J Watson, and 8 more authors
    BMC medicine, 2021
  31. Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England
    Edward S Knock, Lilith K Whittles, John A Lees, and 8 more authors
    Science Translational Medicine, 2021
  32. Under-reporting of deaths limits our understanding of true burden of covid-19
    Charles Whittaker, Patrick GT Walker, Mervat Alhaffar, and 7 more authors
    bmj, 2021
  33. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in England: a mathematical modelling study
    Raphael Sonabend, Lilith K Whittles, Natsuko Imai, and 8 more authors
    The Lancet, 2021

2020

  1. A sub-national analysis of the rate of transmission of COVID-19 in Italy
    Michaela AC Vollmer, Swapnil Mishra, H Juliette T Unwin, and 8 more authors
    2020
  2. State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States
    H Juliette T Unwin, Swapnil Mishra, Valerie C Bradley, and 8 more authors
    Nature communications, 2020
  3. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
    Seth* Flaxman, Swapnil* Mishra, Axel* Gandy, and 8 more authors
    Nature, 2020
  4. Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?
    Lucy C Okell, Robert Verity, Oliver J Watson, and 8 more authors
    The Lancet, 2020
  5. The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low-and middle-income countries
    Patrick GT Walker, Charles Whittaker, Oliver J Watson, and 8 more authors
    Science, 2020
  6. Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study
    Alexandra B Hogan, Britta L Jewell, Ellie Sherrard-Smith, and 8 more authors
    The Lancet global health, 2020
  7. Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK
    Benjamin Jeffrey, Caroline E Walters, Kylie EC Ainslie, and 8 more authors
    Wellcome Open Research, 2020
  8. Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo’
    Enrico Lavezzo, Elisa Franchin, Constanze Ciavarella, and 8 more authors
    Nature, 2020
  9. Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
    Darlan S Candido, Ingra M Claro, Jaqueline G De Jesus, and 8 more authors
    Science, 2020
  10. Comparison of molecular testing strategies for COVID-19 control: a mathematical modelling study
    Nicholas C Grassly, Margarita Pons-Salort, Edward PK Parker, and 8 more authors
    The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 2020
  11. Subnational analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil
    Thomas A Mellan, Henrique H Hoeltgebaum, Swapnil Mishra, and 8 more authors
    MedRxiv, 2020
  12. Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions
    Amy Dighe, Lorenzo Cattarino, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, and 8 more authors
    BMC medicine, 2020
  13. Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: Individual-level estimates of transmission and its spatiotemporal variation using a diffusion network approach
    Isobel Routledge, Shengjie Lai, Katherine E Battle, and 8 more authors
    PLoS computational biology, 2020
  14. Inference of COVID-19 epidemiological distributions from Brazilian hospital data
    Iwona Hawryluk, Thomas A Mellan, Henrique Hoeltgebaum, and 8 more authors
    Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2020
  15. SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on repatriation flights from Wuhan City, China
    Hayley A Thompson, Natsuko Imai, Amy Dighe, and 8 more authors
    Journal of travel medicine, 2020
  16. On the derivation of the renewal equation from an age-dependent branching process: an epidemic modelling perspective
    Swapnil Mishra, Tresnia Berah, Thomas A Mellan, and 6 more authors
    arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.16487, 2020
  17. Host or pathogen-related factors in COVID-19 severity?–Authors’ reply
    Lucy C Okell, Robert Verity, Aris Katzourakis, and 8 more authors
    The Lancet, 2020
  18. Report 33: Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine
    Alexandra Hogan, Peter Winskill, Oliver Watson, and 8 more authors
    2020
  19. Quantifying the online news media coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic. 2020
    K Krawczyk, T Chelkowski, S Mishra, and 8 more authors
    BMJ medRxiv, 2020
  20. The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low-and middle-income countries
    Patrick GT Walker, Charles Whittaker, Oliver J Watson, and 8 more authors
    Science, 2020

2019

  1. Bridging models for popularity prediction on social media
    Swapnil Mishra
    In Proceedings of the Twelfth ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, 2019
  2. Linking Models for Collective Attention in Social Media
    Swapnil Mishra
    The Australian National University (Australia), 2019
  3. TRACKING PROGRESS TOWARDS MALARIA IN ELIMINATION IN CHINA: A MODELLING STUDY
    Isobel Routledge, Shengjie Lai, Katherine E Battle, and 7 more authors
    In AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, 2019

2018

  1. Modeling popularity in asynchronous social media streams with recurrent neural networks
    Swapnil Mishra, Marian-Andrei Rizoiu, and Lexing Xie
    In Twelfth International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, 2018
  2. SIR-Hawkes: Linking epidemic models and Hawkes processes to model diffusions in finite populations
    Marian-Andrei Rizoiu, Swapnil Mishra, Quyu Kong, and 2 more authors
    In Proceedings of the 2018 world wide web conference, 2018
  3. Modeling popularity in asynchronous social media streams with recurrent neural networks
    Swapnil Mishra, Marian-Andrei Rizoiu, and Lexing Xie
    In Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, 2018

2017

  1. Hawkes processes for events in social media
    Marian-Andrei Rizoiu, Young Lee, Swapnil Mishra, and 1 more author
    In Frontiers of multimedia research, 2017

2016

  1. Feature driven and point process approaches for popularity prediction
    Swapnil Mishra, Marian-Andrei Rizoiu, and Lexing Xie
    In Proceedings of the 25th ACM international on conference on information and knowledge management, 2016

2014

  1. Experiments with non-parametric topic models
    Wray L Buntine, and Swapnil Mishra
    In Proceedings of the 20th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, 2014